News

IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...

HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA WHERE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...

INFORMATION

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LOCATION...15.2N 79.8W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa, and upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas. The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin later today or tonight. Ian is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday and reach major hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it reaches western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).